Lando Norris Will Not Be Champion in 2024, here's why.

In what has been an enthralling 2024 Formula 1 season, Lando Norris’ rise to contention has added an electric twist to a campaign that, at one point, seemed destined for another routine Max Verstappen title. However, despite his stellar performances and McLaren’s resurgence, the odds of Norris snatching the championship from Verstappen’s grasp remain improbably slim.

A Stunning Singapore Performance

When Norris crossed the line to win the 2024 Singapore Grand Prix, many were left wondering: Could this be the turning point? Max Verstappen, after dominating the championship with his usual flair, finished second to his younger British rival, shrinking his points lead to a more manageable 52. For Norris fans, this was the sign they were waiting for—proof that the McLaren driver could genuinely compete for the title. But a closer look at the situation reveals that this is more an anomaly than a shift in the power balance of the season.

Early Struggles: The Gap That Never Closed

Let’s rewind to the beginning of May when Norris secured his maiden win of the season. At that point, he trailed Verstappen by 53 points in the standings, and the narrative was simple: there’s time to close the gap, but every race counts. Fast forward to the end of September after his victory in Singapore, and that gap has narrowed by just one point. A mere one-point swing over the course of several months tells you all you need to know about the uphill battle Norris faces.

It’s not as though he hasn’t had the tools to challenge. After the Miami GP, the gap ballooned to nearly 85 points, only for Norris to bring it back down to 52. But the overarching theme remains that Max Verstappen has optimized every opportunity, while Norris has failed to capitalize when it really mattered.

The Fastest Car Isn’t Everything

Since the Miami GP, McLaren has arguably had the fastest, or at least the second-fastest, car on the grid. And yet, Norris hasn’t maximized that advantage. It’s a stark contrast to Verstappen, who, despite Red Bull having the third or even fourth-best car at various points this season, has still extracted the most out of every race. His consistency has been nothing short of remarkable. In fact, there hasn’t been a single moment where you could say Verstappen could have done better. He’s pushed his car to its limits, achieving results that few others could.

Norris, on the other hand, has squandered multiple chances to significantly close the gap. Take Austria, for example, where an ill-timed crash with Verstappen ended his race, while Max went on to secure 10 points. That weekend was supposed to be one where Norris could close the gap, yet instead, Verstappen extended his lead. Another key moment came in Baku, where Norris faltered in qualifying and left the door wide open for Max to gain an advantage. These moments add up, and when you’re chasing someone as relentless as Verstappen, they’re the difference between closing the gap and falling further behind.

The Psychological Factor

Part of what sets Max Verstappen apart is his mental fortitude. In tight championship battles, a driver's mindset can be as important as their car’s performance. Verstappen has matured into a driver who thrives under pressure, rarely making unforced errors. Norris, while clearly talented, still makes critical mistakes. In Singapore, for instance, even while comfortably leading, Norris made a couple of unnecessary errors, including brushing the wall multiple times. These weren’t race-ending mistakes, but they highlight his vulnerability under pressure—something Verstappen has ironed out of his own driving.

This echoes Charles Leclerc’s struggles in 2022, where despite having the fastest car, Leclerc’s inconsistency, combined with Ferrari’s poor strategy calls, handed the title to Verstappen. Norris risks a similar fate if he can’t raise his game to match the consistency required of a champion.

Max Only Needs Second

Perhaps the most damning statistic for Norris is that even if he wins every remaining race and takes the maximum points in both sprint races, Verstappen can finish second in all of them and still win the title. Mathematically, there’s simply no way for Norris to control his own fate. He’s reliant not just on his own performance but on Verstappen’s misfortune. And history shows us that Verstappen rarely falters under pressure. His ability to consistently finish on the podium, even when Red Bull isn’t the fastest car, is a testament to his skill and maturity.

The Constructors' Battle is Over, But the Drivers' Is Not

McLaren will almost certainly wrap up the Constructors' Championship, ending a 23-year drought and signaling their return to the front of the pack. But for Norris, the individual glory that every driver craves is slipping further out of reach with each passing race. He may take solace in his team’s success, but that will be little consolation if he misses out on his first championship in a season where he had all the tools to succeed.

It’s also worth noting that despite McLaren's dominance, both Leclerc and Piastri remain within striking distance of Norris. Leclerc, sitting 34 points behind, and Piastri, trailing by 42, are both closer to Norris than he is to Verstappen. If Norris slips up, he could find himself losing more than just the title battle—his own teammate could outshine him.

The Challenge of What’s Ahead

Looking at the remaining races, things don’t get easier for Norris. Historically, circuits like the Circuit of the Americas (COTA) and Interlagos have favored Mercedes, while Ferrari has performed well in Las Vegas. Red Bull has also shown strength at Yas Marina, the venue for the season finale. With all three of McLaren’s closest competitors bringing major upgrade packages to the upcoming races, Norris may find himself not only battling Verstappen but fending off the resurgent Ferraris and Mercedes as well.

The upcoming Grand Prix races—United States, Mexico, Brazil, Las Vegas, Qatar, and Abu Dhabi—pose varying challenges. The pressure will be immense, and any slip-up could spell the end of his title aspirations. Moreover, the introduction of two sprint races (Brazil and Qatar) adds an unpredictable element, where a small mistake can be magnified.

Red Bull’s Resilience

While McLaren may have the better car for the remainder of the season, Red Bull’s experience in title fights cannot be underestimated. They’ve been through this before and know how to extract every ounce of performance when it counts. Verstappen’s team is well-versed in dealing with the pressure of a title race and will be ready to support their driver through the final stages of the season.

The addition of Daniel Ricciardo’s fastest lap in Singapore adds another layer to Norris’ uphill battle. Even if Norris wins all the remaining races and secures every fastest lap point, Verstappen only needs to finish second behind Norris to claim his fourth title.

What Does This Mean for Norris?

There’s no denying Lando Norris’ immense talent. His rise through the ranks has been meteoric, and he is a future World Champion in the making. But this season, the combination of Verstappen’s consistency, Red Bull’s experience, and Norris’ own errors leaves him with a mountain to climb. If he’s to have any hope of lifting the trophy, Norris needs to not only win every race but also hope for mistakes from the unflappable Verstappen—an outcome that seems increasingly unlikely as the season progresses.

Looking Ahead to 2025

For Norris, this season may end in disappointment, but the experience gained from fighting for a title will be invaluable. If McLaren can maintain their advantage into 2025, Norris will be better equipped to handle the pressures of a championship fight. However, with Red Bull, Ferrari, and Mercedes all improving, Norris must take his consistency to a new level to capitalize on any opportunity.

As it stands, the 2024 F1 championship is Verstappen’s to lose. Norris has shown flashes of brilliance, but brilliance alone doesn’t win titles. Consistency does. And that’s where Verstappen, time and time again, has proved his superiority.